Poland may have recorded 3.4% or slightly higher GDP growth in 2014, above the government plan for 3.3%,, the Economy Ministry said in a monthly report, maintaining their mid-December forecasts following the publication of monthly macro data for November.
Poland’s unemployment is expected to have reached 12% at end-2014, the ministry also estimated in the report. Finance Ministry’s chief economist Ludwik Kotecki told the daily Rzeczpospolita in an interview that the government stands by its 2015 GDP growth forecast for 3.4% , with a caveat that the balance of risks for this forecasts has worsened since the publication date in September due to external factors.
Some economist forecasts show that Poland could accelerate its economic growth to over 4% by end-2015. The stronger forecasts are built, however, on assumption of strong inflows of EU infrastructure funds and hopes for Euroland QE, economists say.
The average for annual GDP growth in Q4 2015 is 3.7%.
Inflation could remain negative to mid-year and even hit a low of 1% annual deflation and economists expect another rate cut from the central bank.
