According to GUS (Poland’s Central Statistical Office), in the 3rd qua
rter of 2016 seasonally adjusted GDP (constant prices, reference year 2010) was higher by 0.2% than in the previous quarter (which is disappointing given the estimation was 0,9%) and 2.1% higher than in the 3rd quarter of the previous year.
Seasonally unadjusted GDP (constant average prices of the previous year) was higher by only 2,5% than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
That’s the lowest numbers since 3 years, which may be found surprising to many since the economic forecasts suggested the GDP growth is going to be on the 2,9% level.
The data above is an early estimation of the GDP growth – more in-depth information is going to be provided by GUS on November 30th.
The results are much lower than the Polish goverment’s forecasts (which were on the 3,4% level) but also lower than the biggest international institutions’ estimations. To give an example, the European Commission last Wednesday lowered the estimated GDP growth in Poland to 3,1%. In the spring the same estimates were 3,7%.
What is the cause of those worrying results? First and foremost, the decline in investments and problems concerning the use of EU funds. National Bank of Poland pointed out a few weeks ago that the Polish companies fear changes in the tax system, as well as the unpredictable state of current geopolitics and macroeconomics.
(GUS, Business Insider, PSIG)
