The newest raport of the World Bank adjusted the predicted rate of GDP growth in Poland from 3,4% to 3,1% in 2017. The growth in the last year amounted to 2,5%. The main cause for the revision is said to be the slower pace of investments. Meanwhile, the prognosis regarding the growth around the world was changed from 2,3% to 2,7% for 2017.
Professor Dariusz Filar of the Gdańsk University said in Radio Gdańsk that the lower level of investment spending is not necessarily the only cause of the problem. The one thing is the level of the companies – what is their quality of management and the values they represent – but that is tough to translate unambiguously to the GDP growth rate. He remarked that, at the end of 2015, for which the growth amounted to 3,9%, most of the decision-makers were convinced that such level of growth can be maintained. The vital part of this growth was stunted however because of the loss of the ability to spend the european funds. The cause for this, in turn, can be explained by both the transitional period between the two “spending” periods which only recently has ended and also the exchange of some decision-makers who are vital to the process.
The important aspect which has an impact on the rate of GDP growth is, as explained by prof. Filar, the harmonious work of the three “engines” of the economy, that is of investments, consumption and netto export. Currently, the balance is swayed in favor of consumption, which can be good in short-term perspective, but can have serious consequences in the longer term, particularly in light of lower level of investments. What is interesting is that the flagship programme of the current government – the “500+” programme – which was supposed to boost the demand for domestic products, raised instead the level of spending on imported goods. That phenomena lowers of course the third “engine” – the netto export part. The sources in the Ministry of Development indicate the return to normal european fund spending rate in the second half of 2017. The consensus among the Polish economists regarding the pace of GDP growth in 2017 circulates in the interval of 2,5% – 3%.
Source: PSIG, Radio Gdańsk
