Nearly a month ago the European Commission raised expected GDP growth for Poland to 3.5 percent for this, next year and 2017. In accordance with the newest estimations of the Central Statistical Office of Poland from Monday, November 30, Polish GDP grew by 0,9% since the previous quarter and non-seasonally adjusted is in fact 3,5% higher than the year before, as predicted by the EC.
This year, Poland (alongside Romania) is to be Europe’s fourth fastest growing economy, after Ireland, Malta and the Czech Republic.
As a result of good forecasts for Poland, the European Commission has decided that there is no need to investigate further into macroeconomic imbalances in the Polish economy, in contrast to 18 other EU countries which will be looked at in more detail.
The Alert Mechanism Report 2016 used a variety of selected indicators to screen EU countries for potential economic imbalances, with countries found to have potential imbalances then analysed by a further In-Depth Review.
“Overall, the economic reading points to some issues related to the external position but with contained risks. Therefore, the Commission will at this stage not carry out further in-depth analysis,” the EC wrote regarding Poland.
Poland is one of eight EU countries that will not receive further surveillance or an In-Depth Review, though the possibility of macroeconomic imbalances arising in the near future has not been ruled out.
The report noted that Poland has stable private sector debt, falling unemployment, an acceptable level of public debt, and an improvement in the current account balance partially due to stronger merchandise exports.
“The [Polish] banking sector remains well capitalised, liquid and profitable, despite a sizable stock of loans denominated in foreign-currency,” the report added.
